BHP Group Limited (ASX: BHP) is Australia’s largest mining company and one of the world’s leading producers of iron ore, copper, nickel, and other key commodities. With increasing demand for metals driven by the global energy transition and infrastructure projects, is BHP stock a strong long-term investment in 2025?
This detailed stock analysis will cover:
✅ Fundamental analysis – Revenue, profitability, and financial health
✅ Technical analysis – Key price levels, entry points, and trends
✅ Stock price prediction – Expected returns in the next 12 months
✅ Risk assessment – Key risks impacting BHP stock
✅ Investment strategy – Best buy zones and long-term potential
If you're considering BHP stock as part of your investment portfolio, this guide will provide valuable insights.
1. BHP Group Overview
🔹 Stock Symbol: BHP (ASX), BHP (NYSE, ADR)
🔹 Market Cap: AUD 160 Billion
🔹 Industry: Mining & Natural Resources
🔹 Dividend Yield: 4.2%
🔹 P/E Ratio: 11.5
🔹 52-Week High/Low: AUD 50.37 / AUD 38.21
Founded in 1885, BHP Group is one of the largest diversified mining companies globally, with a focus on producing:
⛏ Iron Ore – Critical for steel production, mainly exported to China
⚡ Copper – Essential for electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy infrastructure
🔋 Nickel – Key component in lithium-ion batteries for EVs
🛢 Oil & Gas (via Woodside Energy deal) – Providing energy security during transition periods
With a strong presence in Australia, South America, and North America, BHP remains a dominant force in global mining and resources.
2. Fundamental Analysis of BHP Stock
Revenue & Earnings Growth
BHP’s earnings are highly dependent on commodity prices, but the company has consistently maintained strong profitability.
📊 BHP Financials (Last 5 Years):
| Year | Revenue (AUD) | Net Income (AUD) | Earnings Per Share (EPS) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $42.9B | $8.0B | $1.58 |
| 2021 | $60.8B | $17.1B | $3.45 |
| 2022 | $65.0B | $30.9B | $6.10 |
| 2023 | $53.8B | $13.4B | $2.68 |
| 2024E | $55.0B+ | $15.0B+ | $3.00+ |
📌 Key Insights:
- Iron ore accounts for nearly 50% of revenue, making it highly dependent on China’s economic growth.
- Copper and nickel demand is rising due to electric vehicle (EV) production and renewable energy expansion.
- Dividends remain strong, making BHP a top passive income stock in Australia.
Valuation Metrics
BHP stock is currently trading at a reasonable valuation compared to industry peers.
| Metric | BHP (ASX: BHP) | Industry Average |
|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.5 | 14.2 |
| Dividend Yield | 4.2% | 3.5% |
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.38 | 0.45 |
💡 BHP is undervalued compared to peers, making it attractive for long-term investors.
3. Technical Analysis: BHP Stock Price & Best Entry Points
📉 Current Price: AUD 44.50
📈 Support Level: AUD 42
📈 Resistance Level: AUD 48
📌 Best Entry Point: AUD 42 - 43 for long-term holding
🎯 12-Month Target Price: AUD 50 - 55 (12-18% upside)
BHP Stock Chart Analysis (2025)
- 50-Day Moving Average (MA50): AUD 44.20 (short-term support)
- 200-Day Moving Average (MA200): AUD 40.50 (long-term support)
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): 58 (neutral zone, potential upside)
💡 Best Buy Zone: If BHP dips to AUD 42 - 43, it offers a great entry point.
4. Stock Price Prediction for BHP (2025-2030)
As global infrastructure demand, EV production, and renewable energy expand, BHP's core commodities (iron ore, copper, nickel) will benefit.
📈 BHP Stock Price Forecast:
| Year | Price Prediction (AUD) | Potential Gain |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $50 - $55 | +12-18% |
| 2026 | $55 - $60 | +25-35% |
| 2027 | $60 - $70 | +40-60% |
| 2030 | $80+ | 2X Growth |
BHP stock has strong long-term potential driven by rising commodity demand.
5. Risk Assessment: What Could Impact BHP Stock?
⚠ China Economic Slowdown – As the largest consumer of iron ore, weaker demand from China could hurt BHP’s revenue.
⚠ Commodity Price Volatility – Fluctuations in iron ore, copper, and nickel prices could impact earnings.
⚠ Regulatory & ESG Risks – Environmental concerns and government regulations may increase costs.
⚠ Currency Fluctuations – BHP operates globally, making it vulnerable to exchange rate changes.
Risk Management Strategy
✔ Buy at strong support levels ($42 - $43 AUD)
✔ Diversify into other mining stocks (RIO, FMG) for risk balance
✔ Focus on BHP’s dividend yield for passive income stability
6. Investment Strategy: Is BHP a Buy in 2025?
📌 Final Verdict: ✅ BUY for Long-Term Growth & Dividends
Best Investment Strategy for BHP Stock:
✔ Buy Between AUD 42 - 43 – Strong support level
✔ Hold for 5-10 Years – As commodity demand rises
✔ Dividend Reinvestment (DRIP) – Compound passive income over time
✔ Monitor China’s Economy & Metal Prices – Key factors impacting BHP stock
BHP is one of the best ASX dividend stocks, offering a strong combination of growth, stability, and passive income.
💡 Final Tip: If you want a solid Australian stock with long-term upside, BHP is a great addition to your portfolio! 🚀